Oregon Arrest and Race Analysis
Russell_Corey
December 14, 2022
Intro
This project investigates racial disparities in police arrests in Oregon utilizing open source data. The source code and data for this project is hosted at Github
Data
The two data sources used are the “Uniform Crime Reporting” Offenses data and the Oregon 2020 Census data from Portland University.
Crime Data
The crime reporting data set is accessible directly from
https://www.oregon.gov/osp/Pages/Uniform-Crime-Reporting-Data.aspx
Population Data
The Oregon census data can be found at the website
Methodology
First arrest data is loaded with OpenData-Arrests.r which reads in the corresponding data source data/OpenData-Arrests.r. The arrests are then grouped by police agency and race.
Next, census data is loaded using City_data_2020.r which reads data/City_data_2020.xlsx.
Then using Arrests_and_Census.r and the table data/agencies_cities_map_cities_only.csv the names of police departments are joined to the city names in City_data_2020. Only cities with corresponding police departments are kept.
Then using the race demographics in the census data, the percentage of each race population is calculated for each city. Then the percentage of each police department’s arrests are for each race. Then the percentage of arrests for each race is subtracted by the corresponding race population percentage for each police department/city.
Results
| city | black_diff | latino_diff | native_diff | pacific_diff | asian_diff | other_diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland city | 0.1775479 | -0.0081562 | 0.0096021 | 0.0019667 | -0.0574304 | 0.0022551 |
| Gresham city | 0.1559631 | -0.0181710 | 0.0049981 | 0.0003788 | -0.0354360 | 0.0109272 |
| Tigard city | 0.0979545 | -0.0519784 | 0.0089440 | 0.0057124 | -0.0634898 | 0.0500510 |
| Beaverton city | 0.0890202 | 0.0289533 | 0.0040674 | 0.0021812 | -0.1029544 | 0.0267245 |
| Durham city | 0.0857441 | -0.0210637 | 0.0017665 | -0.0172110 | -0.0191598 | 0.0106359 |
| Tualatin city | 0.0633784 | -0.0070094 | 0.0050006 | 0.0346845 | -0.0238777 | 0.0468155 |
Result Visualiazion
Map plots of each racial bias
Black arrest bias map.
Correlation Analysis
We want to inspect potential correlations between racial population density and arrest biases. First we will inspect the data to see what type of correlations we may want to perform.
From the QQ plots we see most of the data series are not normally distributed. See Appendix A3 for all the plots. So we will perform a Spearman’s correlation since the data does not meet the assumptions of the Pearson’s correlation test.
Spearman Correlation matrix
Closer inspection of data fields with statistically significant correlation values.
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'
Sources
Oregon Crime Data
“Oregon State Police: Uniform Crime Reporting”
https://www.oregon.gov/osp/Pages/Uniform-Crime-Reporting-Data.aspxOregon Census Data
“Census Data for Oregon” Population Research Center
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/census-data-oregon Direct link for data set:
https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1JrrmYiQUBPux8nnJ88epAAk9U5rbRDBDOregon Spatial Data Library
“Oregon Counties - 2015”
https://spatialdata.oregonexplorer.info/geoportal/details;id=361c06fee9de4e24a72e280fb386a771Appendi A1 Result Table
| city | black_diff | latino_diff | native_diff | pacific_diff | asian_diff | other_diff | white_diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany city | 0.0219080 | -0.0479248 | -0.0057834 | -0.0023034 | -0.0104086 | 0.0046077 | 0.0938700 |
| Ashland city | 0.0272064 | -0.0468150 | -0.0035888 | 0.0004215 | -0.0152863 | 0.0034937 | 0.0900060 |
| Astoria city | 0.0236614 | -0.0181890 | -0.0074060 | -0.0005554 | -0.0105394 | 0.0163879 | 0.0523206 |
| Beaverton city | 0.0890202 | 0.0289533 | 0.0040674 | 0.0021812 | -0.1029544 | 0.0267245 | 0.0108383 |
| Canby city | 0.0363275 | -0.0171796 | -0.0045363 | 0.0003424 | -0.0120996 | 0.0297832 | 0.0133592 |
| Central Point city | 0.0218978 | -0.0634285 | -0.0047254 | -0.0007728 | -0.0072944 | 0.0144257 | 0.0924388 |
| Coos Bay city | 0.0104328 | -0.0466396 | -0.0038633 | -0.0008332 | -0.0152193 | 0.0014391 | 0.1169996 |
| Cornelius city | 0.0359101 | -0.1252862 | 0.0020102 | 0.0002792 | -0.0150479 | 0.0114812 | 0.1262702 |
| Corvallis city | 0.0427724 | -0.0200813 | 0.0024083 | -0.0014403 | -0.0882549 | 0.0120713 | 0.1096036 |
| Dallas city | 0.0232704 | -0.0051216 | -0.0099940 | 0.0028297 | -0.0073790 | 0.0694612 | -0.0245186 |
| Eugene city | 0.0569202 | -0.0647195 | 0.0006728 | -0.0025293 | -0.0365916 | 0.0015371 | 0.1081902 |
| Gladstone city | 0.0477583 | -0.0441702 | -0.0010939 | -0.0018907 | -0.0017546 | 0.0230005 | 0.0356243 |
| Grants Pass city | 0.0133260 | -0.0291645 | -0.0066572 | -0.0001223 | -0.0106954 | 0.0327994 | 0.0595479 |
| Gresham city | 0.1559631 | -0.0181710 | 0.0049981 | 0.0003788 | -0.0354360 | 0.0109272 | -0.0590437 |
| Hermiston city | 0.0288144 | -0.0836929 | 0.0108989 | -0.0013711 | -0.0108996 | 0.0018595 | 0.0894422 |
| Hillsboro city | 0.0495899 | 0.0414056 | 0.0042882 | -0.0000232 | -0.1169413 | 0.0138497 | 0.0612820 |
| Hood River city | 0.0106477 | -0.0398128 | 0.0570045 | 0.0016845 | -0.0205420 | 0.1514733 | -0.1173093 |
| Keizer city | 0.0331169 | -0.0147770 | -0.0037847 | 0.0002610 | -0.0113163 | 0.0571888 | -0.0045305 |
| La Grande city | 0.0112787 | -0.0264811 | -0.0042744 | 0.0000620 | -0.0032673 | 0.0051539 | 0.0983285 |
| Lake Oswego city | 0.0554664 | 0.0204363 | 0.0008123 | 0.0045821 | -0.0574355 | 0.0249205 | -0.0052392 |
| Lincoln City city | 0.0308455 | -0.0222559 | 0.0019009 | -0.0009249 | -0.0062827 | 0.0821195 | -0.0262385 |
| Medford city | 0.0425625 | -0.1014369 | -0.0029203 | -0.0016793 | -0.0173741 | 0.0053747 | 0.1366091 |
| Milwaukie city | 0.0563064 | -0.0580298 | 0.0032072 | 0.0033073 | -0.0107399 | 0.0362037 | 0.0299018 |
| Molalla city | 0.0053050 | -0.0955633 | -0.0044364 | 0.0020464 | -0.0083427 | 0.0326781 | 0.1200370 |
| Mount Angel city | 0.0257201 | 0.1174529 | -0.0028168 | 0.0099883 | -0.0036014 | 0.0218676 | -0.1297720 |
| Newberg city | 0.0324808 | 0.0265783 | -0.0010112 | 0.0025052 | -0.0104763 | 0.0011268 | 0.0032122 |
| Dundee city | 0.0375316 | 0.0365456 | 0.0001313 | 0.0025146 | -0.0045529 | 0.0005366 | -0.0333877 |
| Newport city | 0.0164805 | -0.0764491 | 0.0258078 | 0.0013199 | -0.0166029 | 0.1024149 | 0.0010766 |
| Ontario city | 0.0309899 | -0.3590707 | 0.0015324 | -0.0000107 | -0.0207552 | -0.0006217 | 0.3851915 |
| Oregon City city | 0.0351976 | -0.0264617 | -0.0018572 | 0.0022086 | -0.0114948 | 0.0219092 | 0.0359716 |
| Pendleton city | 0.0127693 | -0.0594187 | 0.1483630 | -0.0005456 | -0.0070844 | -0.0011662 | -0.0501323 |
| Philomath city | 0.0155518 | -0.0486866 | -0.0009599 | -0.0005154 | -0.0124471 | 0.0274526 | 0.0778616 |
| Phoenix city | 0.0044905 | -0.0973220 | -0.0025737 | 0.0004770 | -0.0136342 | 0.0082897 | 0.1493908 |
| Portland city | 0.1775479 | -0.0081562 | 0.0096021 | 0.0019667 | -0.0574304 | 0.0022551 | -0.0631213 |
| Reedsport city | 0.0137314 | -0.0354702 | 0.0140279 | 0.0071283 | -0.0064590 | 0.0560641 | -0.0006308 |
| Roseburg city | 0.0121818 | -0.0406508 | -0.0058161 | -0.0005494 | -0.0156044 | -0.0005893 | 0.1070369 |
| Salem city | 0.0528040 | -0.0515928 | -0.0010441 | 0.0045233 | -0.0223391 | 0.0205018 | 0.0547593 |
| Seaside city | 0.0245657 | -0.0687073 | -0.0041417 | 0.0000847 | -0.0159526 | 0.0835231 | 0.0299470 |
| Sherwood city | 0.0481243 | -0.0169153 | 0.0048553 | 0.0018514 | -0.0257099 | 0.0902980 | -0.0496444 |
| Springfield city | 0.0465052 | -0.0882439 | -0.0085353 | -0.0036848 | -0.0100009 | -0.0024426 | 0.1299046 |
| Stanfield city | 0.0075356 | -0.0964365 | 0.0189726 | -0.0002673 | -0.0021684 | 0.0020003 | 0.1197934 |
| Stayton city | 0.0086999 | -0.0693156 | -0.0096718 | 0.0007800 | -0.0077423 | 0.0379747 | 0.0978054 |
| Sweet Home city | 0.0082515 | -0.0337289 | -0.0105359 | -0.0005883 | -0.0052021 | 0.0084639 | 0.1008325 |
| Talent city | 0.0250350 | -0.0875603 | -0.0005958 | 0.0014409 | -0.0124695 | -0.0044598 | 0.1274889 |
| The Dalles city | 0.0085329 | -0.0443685 | 0.0446626 | -0.0003972 | -0.0076519 | 0.0150557 | 0.0344167 |
| Tigard city | 0.0979545 | -0.0519784 | 0.0089440 | 0.0057124 | -0.0634898 | 0.0500510 | 0.0124552 |
| Tualatin city | 0.0633784 | -0.0070094 | 0.0050006 | 0.0346845 | -0.0238777 | 0.0468155 | -0.0581640 |
| Umatilla city | -0.0017284 | -0.1003254 | -0.0032772 | 0.0028794 | -0.0051668 | 0.0038039 | 0.1205883 |
| Warrenton city | 0.0049022 | -0.0364269 | -0.0021937 | -0.0030394 | -0.0175967 | 0.0760794 | 0.0405952 |
| Durham city | 0.0857441 | -0.0210637 | 0.0017665 | -0.0172110 | -0.0191598 | 0.0106359 | 0.0385803 |
| West Linn city | 0.0489069 | 0.0133775 | 0.0085253 | 0.0103611 | -0.0349680 | 0.0389043 | -0.0345732 |
| Winston city | 0.0121672 | -0.0339838 | -0.0040406 | 0.0003535 | -0.0065561 | -0.0031432 | 0.0937977 |
| Woodburn city | 0.0104018 | 0.1609522 | -0.0025352 | -0.0003854 | -0.0060511 | 0.0044525 | -0.1413604 |
Appendex A2 Maps
Appendix A3 Data Distributions
Appendix B
source code available at https://github.com/russl-corey/Oregon_Crime
This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later version.
This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details. You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License along with this program. If not, see <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.